If Automobiles become Autonomous in 2035-Would tyre manufacturing be affected too ?
The automobile industry as we know it today will undergo a massive shift in the next 20 years.
The changes will take place not only in terms of the new age fuels like natural gas , bio fuels or battery power through Lithium or Hydrogen fuel cells- the bigger change will come up due to autonomous driverless cars.
The scenario today in the metropolitan cities in India is that a person buys a car and invests in parking space along with it.
Parking space in Mumbai can cost as much as Rs.70,00,000 , in Gurgaon as much as Rs.10,00,000 and in Delhi it has costed people literally an arm or a leg – since some of us have a tendency to shoot first and talk later.
Imagine a scenario in the year 2035 where taxis are running at a cost of Rs.40 to Rs.65 per km ( Diesel will get banned sooner rather than later – and CNG or some new age fuel would replace it, but at a much higher cost than where it is today).
The love affair and the honey moon period which our youth has had with customer aggregators like OLA and UBER would be over- there will be a huge demand and supply of taxis would be regulated with licensing and other strictures.
Parking spaces would cost an arm and a leg in all our cities.
Then comes a solution with driverless cars that run on Hydrogen fuel cells or Lithium powered batteries deliver a running cost of 1/4th of the CNG or petrol or bio fuel counterparts.
These cars have fewer moving parts and a million mile warranty backing them – something TESLA is predicting in the near future.
Here’s the punch line , a million mile warranty would equal to a 40 year life cycle of a car – would people like to buy a product that depreciates , but lasts as much if not more than their marriage?
The psychology of car buying would change.
People would rather travel in a driverless autonomous shared transport vehicle rather than invest in parking space and the car that they may have to drive themselves.
Would tyre manufacturing be affected too ? That’s food for thought.